McKinsey x BoF: The State of Fashion 2026 — What implications for wholesale?

McKinsey x BoF: The State of Fashion 2026 — What implications for wholesale?

06/12/2025

Industry

As fashion enters 2026, the industry moves from a period once viewed as challenging into one defined by persistent uncertainty, with little indication of stabilisation in the year ahead. Geopolitical shifts, evolving consumer behaviour, and the rapid acceleration of AI continue to reshape cost structures, market dynamics, and the ways in which collections are discovered and purchased. Yet the outlook is not uniformly negative: pockets of opportunity remain for brands able to adapt with clarity and intention. The Business of Fashion and McKinsey’s The State of Fashion 2026 report outlines a landscape in which the transformation of business operations, the rise of more intelligent workflows, and a renewed focus on value will guide the industry’s next chapter. 

To support your wholesale strategy for the year ahead, the LE NEW BLACK editorial team has distilled the report’s key findings into concise, actionable insights that translate global shifts into tangible guidance for wholesale growth and operational resilience in 2026.


1. US Tariff Turbulence Will Transform Supply Chains, Pricing, and Commercial Strategy

The new US tariff regime has become one of the most consequential forces reshaping global fashion supply chains. With the US importing “89% of the apparel and leather goods it consumes”, the impact is immediate and structural. Following the April 2025 announcement, duties on apparel and footwear surged during the 90-day implementation window, and although some measures were partially reversed, the “weighted average tariff rate still sits at 36% — more than double historic norms”.

For brands producing in Europe, China, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia, the pressure is felt across every stage of the wholesale value chain. All of these regions now face materially higher tariff exposure compared to pre-2025 levels, prompting brands to scrutinise cost models, delivery windows, and commercial terms.

To mitigate these risks, brands could activate a range of operational levers. These include reassessing sourcing mixes to favour regions with more stable cost structures, adapting specific SKUs to align with more favourable tariff classifications, or optimising logistics through shipment consolidation and improved forecasting to limit exposure to high-duty categories. Brands could also revisit their Incoterms — shifting from DDP to DAP or, in some cases, FOB — to redistribute part of the transport and duty burden to US retail partners. Taken together, these measures can help stabilise margins, preserve commercial viability, and maintain competitiveness in the face of a structurally higher cost environment.


 2. Operational Transformation Through AI Adoption and Simplified Processes

Across the industry, the acceleration of generative AI and automation is prompting a structural shift in how fashion businesses work. According to The State of Fashion 2026, 35 percent of executives report that they are already using generative AI for business functions such as online customer service, image creation, copywriting or product discovery. At the same time, the report notes that “many companies remain stuck in pilot mode”, with early adoption concentrated in marketing and consumer-facing functions while other teams lag behind.

Executives surveyed in the report identified margin, cost and cash strategy as the second most important theme shaping 2026. With sourcing costs, inflation and inventory pressure continuing to rise, companies are increasingly turning to operational simplification and technology-enabled optimisation. As the report notes, digitised sourcing and better forecasting can materially reduce input costs, positioning data-driven decision-making as a critical lever for margin protection in the year ahead.

For wholesale teams specifically, this early-stage adoption signals a meaningful shift ahead. As AI capabilities deepen across organisations and become more widely embedded in industry-standard tooling, brands can expect to see a growing number of AI-enabled solutions entering the wholesale environment. The adoption of these tools will be increasingly important, as their ability to pull from broader, more structured datasets often enables more robust and reliable data models than tools developed or implemented in isolation within individual brands.


3. The AI Shopper Will Transform Discovery and Product Expectations

The report highlights a decisive behavioural shift: “53 percent of US consumers who used AI for search – also used it to help them shop.” Meaning that product data will need to be optimised in order to be read by AI systems. This shift in consumer behavior will in turn have a knock-on effect for what retailers expect from brands.

Retailers will increasingly rely on product information that can support AI-driven consumer journeys

As AI reshapes how end consumers search, compare, and validate products, retailers will need product information that can be easily translated into their own AI-enabled tools and customer-facing systems. This means brands will be expected to provide:

  • structured attributes,
  • consistent wording,
  • clear categorisation,
  • and high-quality visuals.

Even though digital wholesale environments remain closed, the retailer-facing product data they contain must already anticipate the needs of AI-powered retail ecosystems.

AI-driven consumer behaviour will influence retailer expectations

As retailers adapt to customers who increasingly navigate fashion through conversational search, automated recommendations, and personalised discovery paths, their expectations of brands evolve in parallel. Collections that are logically organised, visually consistent, and anchored in clear product narratives are better positioned to meet these shifting dynamics. 

In practice, AI-shaped retail behaviours are visible at the retail level, with companies such as Shopify and Etsy having stuck deals with OpenAI “to let shoppers buy products from those platforms directly in ChatGPT, while Amazon’s ‘Buy for Me’ lets consumers buy from third-party platforms within the Amazon app.” This signals a near-term future in which conversational interfaces become not just discovery channels, but full purchasing environments — raising the bar for product data integrity and clarity across the industry.

Stronger product data could affect sell-in outcomes

Even within closed wholesale environments, the clarity and coherence of a brand’s product information directly shapes the sell-in experience. When attributes, visuals, and descriptions are aligned, buyers grasp collections more intuitively, build assortments with greater ease, and enter appointments with higher confidence. Precise, well-structured data ultimately reinforces a brand’s commercial credibility and accelerates decision-making during market.


4. Value Will Become the Decisive Differentiator

As consumers continue to face rising prices, inflationary pressure, and more selective discretionary spending, value is becoming one of the most influential forces shaping purchase decisions. The report highlights this shift: “over 80 percent of consumers” now cite value-for-money as a top buying factor, signalling a broad behavioural reset across markets.

For wholesale, this shift introduces a new level of scrutiny. Retail buyers operating in increasingly price-sensitive environments will gravitate toward brands that can demonstrate clear, defensible logic behind every price point. Brands must be prepared to articulate — and defend — their value-for-money proposition at every price point, ensuring that the relationship between design, quality, and cost feels coherent and commercially grounded.

This shift also places new emphasis on how clearly brands communicate the logic behind their assortments. A refined value proposition means:

  • Clear product hierarchies that show where investment pieces sit and how they anchor the line.
  • Well-structured categories that reflect real buying behaviour rather than internal design ambition.
  • Disciplined pricing architecture that aligns with market expectations and avoids unjustified mark-ups.
  • Compelling product narratives that help buyers understand how each piece fits into a consumer’s life.

In 2026, as consumers weigh every purchase more carefully and value becomes a primary filter for assortment selections, wholesale partners will gravitate toward brands that help them tell a value story their customers can immediately understand — one rooted in thoughtful design, material integrity, and a pricing strategy aligned with today’s market realities. As a result, the brands that are able to articulate their value proposition with clarity and conviction will enter the year ahead with a measurable commercial advantage.


As the industry braces for another year defined by structural change, the report makes one reality clear: “constant change is simply the new normal.” In this environment, wholesale teams and the brands they represent must operate with sharper clarity, stronger value articulation, and a far more intentional approach to data and operations.

Tariffs, rising costs, shifting consumer expectations and AI-driven discovery are no longer abstract forces — they are redefining how collections must be built, presented and defended. The brands that thrive in 2026 will be those that translate these pressures into strategic advantage: strengthening the logic of their assortments, elevating the precision of their operations, and embracing AI-enabled tools that enhance both internal workflows and the buyer experience.

While uncertainty may be the rule rather than the exception, the path forward is not without opportunity. For brands willing to invest in clarity, coherence and operational intelligence, the coming year offers the chance not only to adapt — but to lead.

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